The Tripling of Verdict Size Post-COVID

In a detailed analysis recently published on Carrier Management, Taylor Smith (Suite 200 Solutions, Advisor at SigmaSight) and John Burge (CEO of SigmaSight) examine the dramatic rise of jury verdicts in the post-COVID litigation environment — and what it means for insurers, defense counsel, and claim professionals navigating settlement decisions.

Why This Matters

With more than 11,000 plaintiff tort verdicts analyzed, the authors highlight how verdict trends shape the true BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) in claims negotiation. Since verdicts anchor the values of pre-litigated files, their rise has sweeping implications across the insurance industry’s largest cost driver: settlements.

Key Findings from the Analysis

• Verdict sizes have nearly tripled post-COVID: Average awards (excluding punitives) rose 179% from the pre-COVID period to 2022–2023.
• Non-economic damages surged: Performance increased 40% compared to pre-COVID, with Texas alone driving a 165% rise.
• Granularity is critical: Outcomes vary widely not only state-to-state but also by county and even by plaintiff attorney. For example, Philadelphia flipped from being defense-favorable pre-COVID to highly plaintiff-favorable post-COVID (+75%).
• Geography and attorney matter: Broad generalizations (e.g., “New York verdicts are worse”) can mislead. True insight requires county- and attorney-level data.

The Takeaway

Smith and Burge caution against relying on macro “nuclear verdict” narratives alone. Instead, they argue the defense must respond to the plaintiff bar’s tech-driven sophistication with data-driven strategies of its own. By using granular verdict and venue insights, defense teams can:

• Better quantify file-specific BATNAs.
• Make more informed settlement decisions.
• Reclaim leverage in negotiations by knowing which cases to try and which to settle.

Read the full article here.